Day 188

Economic Forecaster at Georgia Tech Dr. Rajeev Dhawan - a long time friend and former professor of Alex Mecl at UCLA - hosted his 𝗳𝗶𝗿𝘀𝘁 online Economic Forecasting Conference, where he gave his forecast titled “𝗘𝗰𝗼𝗻𝗼𝗺𝗶𝗰 𝗧𝗮𝗻𝗴𝗼 𝗠𝗼𝘃𝗲𝘀 𝗟𝗲𝗱 𝗯𝘆 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗩𝗶𝗿𝘂𝘀”.

These are the main takeaways:

1. The key to a sustained recovery by early 2022 is the combo of Therapeutics and an effective Vaccination of the population during 2021. All other factors, including the outcome of the presidential election, are only statistical noise compared to the virus effect.

2. Consumers are rational spenders. They come back when you declare all clear and pullback when they feel it's getting worse (even without a lockdown). Thus, the shape of ongoing recovery will be dictated by the return (or pullback) of elective health spending.

3. Residential real estate's boat is now tied to stock market performance. Due to pandemic-induced volatility in stock markets, the increasing preference of consumers for single-family homes illustrates their desire to diversify and not have all their assets in their 401k.

4. Georgia needs good news on the international front to anchor its ongoing recovery. Growth in e-commerce means more jobs in GA's ports and along the supply chain that leads to the customer's door.